Passagens de Magalhães

The linguistic universe of Obosa encompasses ten essential terms, each mapping an aspect of human interaction and the collective drive toward shared well-being. The new updates are indicated in parentheses: maratisvala (new), samara (new), za (new), na (new), la (new), vranosta (new), maoa (new), oinhama (new), tsudoshi (new), and tsudoshong (new). These words function as vectors of meaning, converting emotions, agreements, and movements into pulses of social energy. Gratitude, embodied in maratisvala, and the gracious response of samara forge emotional bonds that form the foundation of human progress. Just as synapses strengthen collective memory, maratisvala establishes a field of goodwill that self-reinforces, and samara reciprocates with humility. The certainty of consensus emerges from the particle za, while na introduces the doubt necessary for reflection, much like in quantum physics where indeterminacy spurs new observational possibilities. The conjunction la charts the course ...

The expansion of the OBOSA vocabulary with the introduction of tsudashi, cratoda, larova, torava, obsa, totsa, the +ing and +ong suffixes, and the sa, ma, baro, biro, and bero particles represents an evolution as profound as the transformation from a rough sketch into a symphonic masterpiece, for each term functions like an instrument that, together, creates harmony between opposing forces. At the C1 level, native speakers craft sentences entirely in OBOSA, employing tsudashi to convey vibrant stability and cratoda to name intense imbalances, just as a conductor draws from silence both dramatic tension and ultimate resolution. At C2, by permitting the careful fusion of OBOSA with elements from other languages, this hybrid grammar incorporates +ing to emphasize ongoing processes and +ong to mark completed states—much like a river that bifurcates to empty into different seas without losing its original course. In C3, the combination of multilingual sentences reveals maximum fluidity, ass...

In the current stage of OBOSA’s evolution, we observe the incorporation of the suffixes +ing and +ong as the final layers of a four-Code linguistic architecture. In Codes 1 and 2, the primordial radicals and tonal frameworks are established, forming the semantic matrix and the polarization of meaning; in Code 3, which governs verbal and progressive dynamics, +ing introduces the gerund as an active force, extending the radical’s vibration and granting expression a temporal fluidity comparable to the continuous breath of a vast respiratory system. Conversely, Code 4 serves as a mechanism of closure and stabilization: +ong terminates the cycle of semantic energy, certifying the crystallization of the state, much like the moment when a wave reaches the shore and restores the ocean’s stillness before the next ebb. Technically, +ing and +ong attach to the same radical that, in earlier stages, could only assume static forms or tonal complements. Previously, a radical such as baro- could gener...

The journey of the Code Stages from A1 to A10 unfolds like a social symphony, where each chord and each silence work together to create harmony and reinforce balance in human interaction. In the first trio of stages, we begin with A1—the solitary pulse of a drum—symbolizing the individual discovering their inner note and setting the tone for their own existence. In A2, that note expands to a second instrument, forging a binary dialogue that represents mutual respect between two people. By A3, the emergence of a triadic chord lays the foundation for small groups, where trust is woven into sonic threads and transforms into bonds of friendship and cooperation. Stages A4 through A6 broaden the palette of timbres and textures: A4 introduces simple harmony, like four voices united in a quartet, signaling the solidification of communities sharing common purposes; A5 evolves into extended chords, where ideas intertwine in fluid networks, reflecting the complexity of collaborative circles; and ...

Let’s calculate Infracommerce in a transparent, non-speculative way based on its position as of August 27, 2025. In this post, you’ll see that the stock is trading below what we’d expect given the company’s true fundamentals, which we’ll outline below. Infracommerce operates as a full-service e-commerce provider across Latin America, with operations in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and Argentina. Its client roster includes Ambev, Hershey’s, Nike, Motorola, Bayer, Ray-Ban, and Unilever. The company announced and executed a debt renegotiation and extension plan that meaningfully strengthens its capital structure, translating into robust cash flow. The analysts’ consensus backs this up: they’ve set an average 12-month price target of BRL 60.00. While that level may not be reached precisely at the end of the period, the expectation is that it will be hit as soon as the effects of the completed restructuring plan become clear. In practical terms, this implies a potential upside of over 1...

Today we analyzed Wednesdays in the stock market over the past five years. From January 2020 through December 2024, the market showed, on average, a slight positive bias. In Brazil, the Ibovespa, according to B3’s own statistics, closed on this weekday with an average return of approximately 0.12%, reflecting a considerable flow of investors reallocating positions after midweek results—a subtle yet tangible trend that was evident today as well. At the global level, the major indices—S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, and MSCI World—experienced a similar phenomenon, known as the “hump day” effect. They closed with gains ranging from 0.03% to 0.06%, driven by a combination of corporate news released on Tuesdays in the United States and a renewed surge in trading volume ahead of the weekly close in Europe and Asia. For those monitoring IFCM3, comparing Brazil with international markets is essential. In this comparison, one may observe that Ibovespa’s volatility on Wednesdays tends to be more pro...

Imagine the real scenario: IFCM3 closed today’s trading session at BRL 0.37, a 75% drop from the previous close. Notably, the traded volume totaled approximately BRL 1.74 million, indicating a moderate flow of resources into this stock during the day. In terms of share count, around 4.7 million shares changed hands, equivalent to 5.2% of the 90.78 million shares outstanding. What about growth‐potential estimates? You’ll need to consider three scenarios: Optimistic, Base, and Pessimistic. In the Optimistic scenario, the target price is BRL 4.00—a rise of 809% over the recent BRL 0.44 closing average. This forecast hinges on a return to the 52-week high, reflecting a full recovery of operations and renewed market confidence. In the Base scenario, the target price is BRL 2.20, representing a 404.5% increase driven by a more balanced, moderate growth trend. This positioning is justified by market uncertainties and wider swings in global economic policies. In the Pessimistic scenario, th...

Today, let’s talk about problem-solving. Do problems exist? Of course they do, and they will never stop appearing—but they have solutions, and the answer is yes. For every problem, there is a solution. Human history is the story of learning. Through learning, we overcome our barriers and challenges, and they are many. We must find the strength to break through our obstacles because, as I once said to someone, problems are the Titans and we are Hercules. In this battle of forces, humanity prevails. It’s inconceivable that in our modern age we still carry the weight of Atlas on our shoulders without realizing it. The banner for the eradication of speculation has been raised, and we all know that justice is fully proportional to our rights. As long as people go hungry, suffer from disease, endure crises, and die, this burden remains on our backs. A more humane society is a movement that begins now—through spreading the word and engaging with the issues. With the right plan and a clear goa...

For those just getting oriented, this blog covers Mathematics, the Market, and related topics like Health, Biology, and their offshoots. Lately I’ve been writing more about the market because I believe that a more predictable market is the solution to all our problems, without exception. When it comes to the market, I’m monitoring IFCM3—which is a penny-stock company in logistics, payments, digital solutions, and e-commerce, among other areas. Today’s trading in IFCM3 shares delivered an unmistakable signal: a -9.09% swing shows the company is on the verge of a breakout. What does this mean in practice? It means more investors are lining up to acquire Infracommerce assets. Even more significant is that the restructuring agreement signed on March 28, 2025, has been fully completed. Implementation of the resulting measures will unfold over the next quarter, and to top it all off, IFCM3 approved a 20-for-1 reverse stock split without restricting shareholder rights. The financing arranged ...

IFCM3 has been catching fresh winds of growth in the technology and internet sector, like a sky gradually clearing after several cloudy days. Specializing in e-commerce solutions for major brands, Infracommerce operates across multiple Latin American countries, uniting platform, marketing, content, payments, logistics, and customer service into a single digital ecosystem. With heavyweight clients such as Ambev, Nike, and Unilever, the company has shown it is fine-tuning its processes and cutting costs to enter the next quarter with more stamina. In this restructuring move, Infracommerce has slashed operational expenses and honed in on its core business, which helps balance the books and boosts investor confidence. It’s like, after a harsh frost, the soil becoming more fertile for planting: adjustments made now pave the way for results to sprout more consistently in the coming days, sparking hopes of positive news about new contracts or service expansions in the Latin American market. ...

Yes, if you saw my last blog post stating that the opening price of IFCM3 would match the closing price on Friday, August 22, 2025, I can confirm that information is accurate. At market open, it started at BRL 0.45, but within seconds it stabilized at BRL 0.44, since, as I mentioned, there were no new announcements or significant market developments exerting pressure on the asset’s price. However, this stagnation at BRL 0.44 does not align with the trend I’ve been warning about for the next six months. Investing in this penny‐stock company, as noted, is a long-term play because of seasonal factors like Christmas, New Year’s, and other festivities. It’s as if the company shines brighter when there’s a big celebration in its operating region (Brazil and Latin America). If there’s no reason to celebrate, there’s no business on the horizon—but that doesn’t mean you should be discouraged. Remember, Fridays are always celebrated, even if they’re not quite like Black Friday (the last Friday i...

What to expect for IFCM3 at today’s market open? As you may have noticed, stagnation (0.00% change) prevailed throughout the week, with strong tendencies toward price leveling. Based on our research, it is virtually certain that today’s opening price in Brazil will match last Friday’s closing price. If, like me, you’re betting on a gradual decline in speculative activity, the opening price logic likely won’t differ from the August 22 closing price, when IFCM3 ended at BRL 0.44. The chart is still available, and you can see it below: Based on investor inflows, the market seems tilted toward buying pressure. In 97% of scenarios, today’s opening will fall between BRL 0.43 and BRL 0.45, with the optimal buy price at the average—BRL 0.44, identical to last Friday’s close. No significant news over the weekend suggests any breakout to the upside or downside. Therefore, if you plan to buy right at the open, price concentration and pressure point squarely at BRL 0.44, which isn’t surprising giv...

Imagine that every camera in the world is pointed at you from the moment you’re born. Such constant scrutiny might tempt most people into conformity and complacency, but not everyone thinks that way. Phoebe Gates is one of many who live under that glare and still choose to raise their voices against situations that are utterly absurd and unjust. Recent events prove that Phoebe refused to settle and instead carved out her own space to help create a fairer world for everyone. Fiercely opposed to speculation, she developed tools that deliver real product prices to people in the market who refuse to be misled. The app built by PHIACO — a brand she launched with Sophia Kianni — clearly demonstrates how market solutions can be designed to improve life on Earth for the general population. This app acts like a true market “superfood.” While countless consumers were misled by inflated prices, this technology works relentlessly to control costs, making the marketplace simply more just, equitable...

Imagine the following scenario: every citizen in the world is an Investor, and Assets are proportional so that each Investor owns exactly one Business. In this utopian world, all Assets are Stable — representing a ratio of 1 — meaning asset stability is 100%. Plugging this into the predictability formula F, the first term — alpha multiplied by SA/In — becomes an isolated, undefined quantity, much like 0 divided by 0. Meanwhile, the negative impact of beta, which multiplies the Speculation Volume (SV), would effectively vanish, leaving only the sum of alpha’s term plus delta times the MacroIndex. With the current MacroIndex at 1.2, we’d end up with F = +2.2, which completely exceeds the design range of –1 to +1 for F. What does this imply? It shows that society still has deep flaws, chief among them the lack of democratized knowledge. In the mathematically proven scenario above, the day Education is equally accessible to everyone, Speculation — our most pernicious market force — would d...

The F formula is a valuable starting point, but it’s far from definitive. It shows us that when the speculative component dominates, the predictability index plummets—just like a student who tries to cram everything at the last minute and ends up lost when faced with a question requiring deep understanding. In the same way that spaced repetition and conceptual grasp reduce exam panic, the market needs mechanisms to curb ultra–short-term behavior and keep SV at low levels. To put this into practice, we can adopt measures akin to a solid study plan. Fees on high-frequency trades act like a rule forcing the investor to pause and think before clicking “send order,” just as an exam timer makes a candidate manage their remaining time more carefully. Position limits and higher margin requirements serve as mandatory review checkpoints, filtering out purely speculative moves and encouraging the construction of value-based portfolios. Financial education plays the role of quality teaching materi...

Imagine the market as a make-or-break college entrance exam, and know that to ace this test, we must grasp every figure on our “predictability answer key.” In our case, 263.63 million investors stand for the enormous examination board, and we divide that by 3,000 stable assets to produce a tiny ratio of 0.00001138. Applying the weight α of 0.6, this first component contributes just 0.00000683 to the final F score. Speculative volatility — SV at 0.64 — is like that tricky essay question that can derail your entire exam if not managed well. Weighted by β of 0.4, it subtracts 0.256 points from this “market test.” Meanwhile, the MacroIndex of 1.2 arrives like the last-minute review notes you study calmly, the macroeconomic component that soothes the nerves, and its weight δ of 0.2 adds 0.24 points of relief. By adding the almost imperceptible 0.00000683, removing the 0.256 from speculation, and tacking on 0.24 from the macro base, we arrive at an F of approximately –0.01599. This slightly ...

Market forecasting, at least in theory, isn’t far off. After establishing the Speculation Volume in the previous post, I arrived at a Forecast Function, which is presented below: Where F is the forecast, In is the number of investors, SA is the number of stable assets, and SV is the Speculation Volume. What would the scenario look like? Follow along below: Imagine a market environment in which 4,000 investors identify 2,000 stable assets, in a 25% speculation scenario. In this case, the value of F is 1.75, suggesting that demand for stable assets is significant relative to supply, even though speculation reduces the forecast value. Meanwhile, in the same scenario but with 5% speculation, F changes to 1.95. Based on an oscillatory forecast parameter for F ranging between +2 and –2, the result suggests the market is in a phase of high confidence, with significant demand for stable assets and low speculation. This reduction in speculation may indicate a more stable and predictable market....

In a previous post, we discussed the harmful effects of speculation. In this brief post, I propose a function for Speculation Volume, as shown below: In this formula we have: SV, which equals Speculation Volume; x, which always tends toward y; and DV, which is Trading Volume. It’s a simple function attached to the Speculation Volume Ratio, since that ratio works with this variable but doesn’t necessarily explain how Speculation Volume is calculated. For example, imagine a product (x) with a real market value of R$ 1.00 being traded at R$ 1.50 (y). Suppose 10 units are traded (DV). Performing the calculation yields a Speculation Volume of 15%, which is considered a moderate level of speculation. This function is regarded as a variant of the Speculation Volume Ratio and is proposed as a complement to market analysis, offering a consistent tool that could, in the future, become a metric for this condition as it varies with Trading Volume. Now let’s imagine a more aggressive scenario. Supp...

On March 28 of this year, Infracommerce (IFCM3) signed an amendment to a binding agreement with its creditor banks in exchange for a debt-for-equity swap, which is hardly novel in today’s news cycle. In this amendment, the Company stipulated that it would maintain its operations in Brazil and Latin America on a combined basis — a decision reflecting management’s recognition of improved performance in Brazil, aimed at securing financial and strategic stability in the market. As a result, approximately BRL 693.6 million of liabilities in loans and debentures with its main creditors were restructured, effectively eliminating the negative burden that had constrained the Company’s cash flow in exchange for equity control by those creditor banks. From that point, the Company was able to raise up to BRL 70 million in financing, divided into four tranches. But what does this actually mean? The Company made strategic decisions to convert debt into equity stakes held by those who had been expect...

On this day, with the market open at 13:26 Brasília time, IFCM3 records — ahead of a positive market in the business sector — the same opening quote of 0.45 BRL, having traded at 0.47 BRL at several intraday points, as shown by the chart below (source: MSN Dinheiro): What does this mean? Unlike yesterday, today we see more peaks — before the close of trading — at values above the opening, which was identical to yesterday’s. In short, it’s as if the stock is attracting extra attention toward an uptick in its quoted price. In other words, the flow of trades has shown positive momentum, despite neutral overall variation, such that an accumulation is forming among those looking to transact at prices above 0.45 BRL. This is a clear signal that investors are already adjusting to reject deeper price drops below this presented value — the opening price — and therefore, in the next wave of market expansion in trading — as is happening today — it is both possible and highly likely that the p...

Speculation: the act of assessing items imprecisely, underestimating or overestimating the item in question; this is my definition of the term. In this post, I decided to tackle the subject by correlating data from  four jurisdictions  — Brazil, the United States of America, the United Kingdom, and Canada. With regard to Brazil, the country lacks an explicit anti-speculation policy and instead relies on regulatory bodies that aim to curb practices considered abusive. Meanwhile, the United States employs a concentrated approach with conduct and transparency regulations. In the USA, the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) prohibits price manipulation and requires the disclosure of positions that are significant in stock options and futures. The United Kingdom regulates speculation through the FCA (Financial Conduct Authority) using emergency powers. Heavy fines can be imposed, and market bans are options included in the Market Abuse Regulation, among other authorities. In C...

Highs and lows — that’s what the market is all about. Many stocks fluctuate throughout the day, and we look for the best ways to achieve our returns. As a study exercise, believing in the viability of penny‐stock companies for new investors — who tend to learn on lower‐priced shares before venturing into higher‐priced ones — I chose IFCM3. To go beyond an empirical view, I decided to invest a modest amount to analyze this stock’s intraday fluctuations. I will therefore be posting regularly about this ticker as part of market predictability research, with the goal of promoting greater investor inclusion. It’s important to note up front that I don’t intend to influence anyone to buy or sell this stock. Rather, I want to share my experience as an investor so we can get a sense of how to forecast the market. A useful index is the MOGA function, which I’ve explained in earlier posts and won’t revisit here. I will simply apply the variables updated for each trading day, as I have done today....