THE CONSTANT LOW OF IFCM3 DID NOT PRESENT ITSELF TODAY: A SIGN OF A BREAKOUT?

Highs and lows — that’s what the market is all about. Many stocks fluctuate throughout the day, and we look for the best ways to achieve our returns. As a study exercise, believing in the viability of penny‐stock companies for new investors — who tend to learn on lower‐priced shares before venturing into higher‐priced ones — I chose IFCM3. To go beyond an empirical view, I decided to invest a modest amount to analyze this stock’s intraday fluctuations. I will therefore be posting regularly about this ticker as part of market predictability research, with the goal of promoting greater investor inclusion.

It’s important to note up front that I don’t intend to influence anyone to buy or sell this stock. Rather, I want to share my experience as an investor so we can get a sense of how to forecast the market. A useful index is the MOGA function, which I’ve explained in earlier posts and won’t revisit here. I will simply apply the variables updated for each trading day, as I have done today. On this day, IFCM3 opened at BRL 0.45, reached an intraday high of BRL 0.47, and never traded below the opening price. Thus, the session closed with a 0.00 % change — indicating equilibrium between buying and selling pressure. This stands out because when I began following this stock, it traded at BRL 0.59, so I can identify an initial sign of resistance to further price declines. Does this mean the price won’t fall any further? Not necessarily. Adopting a more neutral stance, I strongly believe the share price will not fall below BRL 0.40 in the days ahead.

Since there was no consistent break above BRL 0.47 today, there are no signs of an imminent short‐term breakout. Optimists should remain cautious — if the close had been around BRL 0.50, that outlook would need to be reconsidered.

Today’s trading in IFCM3 revealed price stability. The lack of major news or catalysts tends to favor the skeptics, suggesting moderate growth as some analysts have noted. Regarding risk, if positive results are published or strong international cash‐flow structures emerge, the bullish bias could be reinforced. Conversely, macroeconomic noise or restructuring setbacks at IFCM3 are likely to push the stock toward the pessimistic camp.

That said, and considering all my ongoing research, the skeptics’ base case appears most likely to hold, pointing to a price around BRL 0.69. This is justified by the balance of forces and the absence of catalysts for a sharp rally — though that could change if the stock closes above BRL 0.50.

If you’re also tracking this stock, keep an eye on daily trading volume and relevant news to catch any shifts in sentiment. One certainty is that, unlike previous days, buying and selling pressure was balanced today — signaling that a price drop may be less probable relative to today’s close, though still possible.

The MOGA function maintains a market dominance value of 0.349, given an anticipated 85 % growth in operations. In the formula (regarding D), higher dominance values like 0.9 or even 1 become less relevant due to how the function is structured. These values are justified by today’s sustained pressure and the 0.00 % variation already noted.

If you’re deciding whether to invest, you should also look at technical indicators such as RSI and moving averages to spot potential breakouts that would support an optimistic stance. Additionally, keep quarterly earnings forecasts and cost‐cutting news in mind and review them whenever possible.

In conclusion, after several bearish days, today’s neutral variation between open and close strongly suggests that the skeptics may be right, and moderate growth is very likely — albeit uncertain — since this new neutral trading paradigm for IFCM3 wasn’t seen in previous sessions. Finally, if you ask me now — Buy or Sell? — my recommendation is to buy. But before doing so, conduct further research elsewhere to gather more information and make the best decision. I base this advice on the fact that e-commerce holidays tend to drive strong spikes in trading activity. In my next post, I will explore this in greater depth.