Applying MOGA to IFCM3: What do the numbers say?


Imagine the real scenario: IFCM3 closed today’s trading session at BRL 0.37, a 75% drop from the previous close. Notably, the traded volume totaled approximately BRL 1.74 million, indicating a moderate flow of resources into this stock during the day. In terms of share count, around 4.7 million shares changed hands, equivalent to 5.2% of the 90.78 million shares outstanding.

What about growth‐potential estimates? You’ll need to consider three scenarios: Optimistic, Base, and Pessimistic.

In the Optimistic scenario, the target price is BRL 4.00—a rise of 809% over the recent BRL 0.44 closing average. This forecast hinges on a return to the 52-week high, reflecting a full recovery of operations and renewed market confidence.

In the Base scenario, the target price is BRL 2.20, representing a 404.5% increase driven by a more balanced, moderate growth trend. This positioning is justified by market uncertainties and wider swings in global economic policies.

In the Pessimistic scenario, the target price is BRL 0.43 versus the recent BRL 0.44 average. More precisely, due to fresh investor inflows, today’s close at BRL 0.37 signals a buying opportunity, as more participants seek IFCM3 shares at what they perceive as accessible prices.

To apply the MOGA function and analyze this asset’s operation movements, you must select a scenario. For weighting purposes, we’ll choose the Base scenario. Market dominance, rising from 85% by an estimated 404.5%, allows us to work with 94%, which inversely yields a D of 0.04.

In a Market Power setting—ranging from –1 to +1 and set at +0.85—with a market weight (w) of 5 on a –5 to +5 scale, and assuming today’s trading volume of 5.2% of the 90.87 million shares outstanding, the M value is approximately 501,559,500.

But what does this mean? The M value indicates that the operations movements are above expected levels and positive, demonstrating solid financial health for the company in executing services—such as a seasonal event—under the Base scenario. Calculations for the other scenarios differ entirely.





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